Dr Prasad B Shelke

A novel Southern Hemispheric atmospheric blocking index

Question. Can a blocking diagnostic be designed around the distinctive stronger zonal flow, oceanic midlatitudes and circumpolar storm-track dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere?

Contribution. Developed a novel hemisphere-aware framework that combines anomaly, gradient, and persistence constraints for robust blocking detection.

Status: Manuscript close to submission.

Evaluating impacts of massive Greenland Blocking Decline in CESM-LENS2

Question. How does CESM-LENS2 represent Northern Hemisphere blocking, and what circulation structures help explain regional model bias and projected change?

Approach. Used hybrid blocking detection across the large ensemble, combined with circulation and jet-stream diagnostics for bias attribution.

Status: Manuscript in preparation.

The butterfly effect in blocking and temperature extremes

Question. Does blocked-heat extreme risk remain or increase even where blocking frequency decline in future?

Contribution. Separating circulation/frequency effects from conditional risk effects to show how dynamics and a warmer thermodynamic background jointly shape future heat and cold extremes.

Status: Manuscript close to submission.

Global confidence maps for blocking and associated compound extremes

Question. Where are projected changes distinguishable from the large spread generated by internal variability?

Contribution. Developed a unique ensemble-based confidence information for blocking, heat waves, cold waves and co-located blocked extremes, including spatial significance and false-discovery-rate control.

Strong Value: A reusable Global uncertainty framework for circulation and compound-extreme analysis.

Pacific Ocean signals, Indian monsoon predictability & drought teleconnections

Question. How can ocean thermal variability and remote oceanic teleconnections inform Indian summer monsoon and drought variability?

Background. My master's thesis examined Indian summer monsoon predictability using Pacific Ocean mean temperature, followed by climate risk assessment, mitigation and adaptation related research at IIT Bombay on oceanic teleconnections and Indian drought.

Theme: Ocean–atmosphere coupling, monsoon variability and climate predictability.

Regional atmospheric modelling and air–sea exchange in the Mediterranean

Focus. Atmospheric and environmental modelling within an international research network, including regional modelling and pollution/dispersion processes over the Mediterranean.

Broader value. This work expanded my experience into regional atmosphere–ocean process modelling (including model development) and environmental applications.